Venezuela Maritime Intelligence Brief #001

March 24, 2026

---

---

The Big Picture: USGC Is Running Out of Heavy Crude Suppliers

The US Gulf Coast refining complex — home to approximately 493 kbd of coking capacity across five major facilities — is losing its traditional heavy crude suppliers one by one. The data tells a clear story:

Total PADD 3 crude imports fell 326 kbd from 2019 to 2024. Mexico and Iraq alone account for 310 kbd of that loss. The supply exiting USGC (~433 kbd) far exceeds supply entering (~179 kbd), leaving an unfilled gap of approximately 254 kbd.

Venezuela has filled 132 kbd of that gap so far — roughly 40% of the Mexico+Iraq decline. No other source is growing at USGC. Every major competitor is flat, declining, or redirecting to Asia.

Sources: EIA, OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, Pemex, Alberta Energy Regulator. All A1 reliability.

---

Why Merey Wins: The $10–12/bbl Price Advantage

The economics of USGC coker feed selection are straightforward — and Merey is winning by a wide margin.

Merey's discount of $10–12/bbl versus competing heavy crudes is historically large. At a ~$16.83/bbl discount to WTI, it is the cheapest coker feed available to USGC refineries.

Who is buying? The five USGC refineries with significant coking capacity — and historical Venezuelan purchasing relationships — are the natural buyers:

Combined coking capacity at these facilities: ~493 kbd. Current VZ crude at USGC: 211 kbd. Theoretical headroom: ~280 kbd — closely matching the 254 kbd unfilled import gap.

---

Competitor Watch: No One Is Coming to Challenge Venezuela at USGC

Each of the traditional heavy crude competitors at USGC is either declining or structurally constrained:

• Mexico (Maya): Production declining (1,936 → 1,842 kbd). Exports to US down 37%. The Dos Bocas refinery is absorbing increasing volumes of domestic crude. This is structural — Pemex policy, not a swing factor.

• Canada (WCS): Total Canadian production is growing (4,408 → 4,776 kbd), but that growth is flowing to Asia via the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX), not to USGC. PADD 3 Canadian imports are flat at ~526 kbd. The growth story is Pacific, not Gulf.

• Iraq (Basrah Heavy): Effectively zero at USGC (171 → 4 kbd). Freight economics make the Arabian Gulf → USGC voyage uncompetitive, and OPEC quotas constrain volume. With the Iran-Israel conflict creating Hormuz transit risk, this reverts even more strongly to zero.

• Colombia (Castilla): Declining production (886 → 773 kbd) with approximately 7 years of reserve life remaining. No new exploration programs of scale.

• Ecuador (Oriente/Napo): Flat production (~475 kbd), declining US exports (199 → 122 kbd). Redirecting to China under bilateral agreements.

---

Jose Terminal: Congestion Building

Jose Terminal remains the primary bottleneck for Venezuela's export growth.

The congestion pattern is consistent with the export volume trajectory. At 211 kbd to USGC alone, Jose handles approximately 4 Aframax-equivalent loadings per week to US destinations. If VZ crude fills the 254 kbd gap and total USGC-bound exports approach 400+ kbd, that doubles to 8+ loadings per week — a rate that will stress Jose's berth availability further.

Two Aframax-class arrivals this week from the Caribbean basin, both under Cameroon registry. The flag-of-convenience pattern at Jose continues to evolve as compliant tonnage under GL-46A and GL-50A frameworks increases.

OSV activity remains flat, suggesting support vessel availability is not keeping pace with the crude loading ramp. This is a supply chain constraint worth monitoring.

---

The Iran Overlay

1. Kharg Island damage: If sustained, removes ~1.5M bbl/d of Iranian crude from global markets. Iran was Venezuela's competitor for Asian heavy crude slots.
2. Hormuz disruption: Makes Basrah Heavy and Saudi Arab Heavy physically unavailable — two grades that USGC refineries still take.
3. Freight premium: Houthi Red Sea activity adds $3–5/bbl to any Suez-transiting crude. Americas-sourced crude has zero Red Sea exposure.
4. Price impact: Brent likely to trade at $80+ range. Merey's absolute price rises, but its discount vs disrupted alternatives may actually widen.

---

What This Means for Maritime Operations

Every 100 kbd of Venezuelan crude exports to USGC generates:

• ~2 Aframax tanker loadings per week at Jose Terminal
• Ship agency, pilotage, and port services for each call
• OSV support for upstream production
• Customs brokering for import/export flows
• OFAC compliance documentation per voyage

At current volumes (211 kbd), that is ~4 Aframax calls per week. At the potential ceiling (~400+ kbd), that is 8+ calls per week.

The constraint is not demand. The constraint is infrastructure — berths, tugs, pilots, shore tankage, and the human capital to run compliant port operations in a market that operates on paper, WhatsApp messages, and relationships.

---

Key Signals to Watch

---

NextGen Maritime Intelligence Brief is published weekly. All data sourced from EIA, OPEC, Pemex, Alberta Energy Regulator (A1 reliability) and NextGen's own port monitoring systems.

Subscribe to receive the next brief in your inbox.